This Valentine’s Day, pressure is building across the global flower supply chain. In India, unseasonal cold snaps delayed greenhouse harvests, pushing wholesale rose prices close to double their usual levels. In the UK and EU, quality issues are emerging, with more than a third of imported roses from East Africa affected. In Australia, retailers are increasingly turning to native flowers as biosecurity hurdles make imports less reliable.

The global rose market is valued at US$12 billion annually, with high seasonal demand and limited tolerance for disruption. What’s playing out now is not a one-off shock, but a signal of deeper, nature-driven risk embedded in retail supply chains.

Climate extremes are challenging greenhouse operating assumptions

Greenhouses have long been seen as a buffer against weather risk. However, cold shocks in major growing regions, such as Pune, India, pushed temperatures beyond the conditions under which greenhouse systems typically operate efficiently, delaying harvests during peak demand. In East Africa, record heat is accelerating plant stress and degrading rose quality, placing further strain on already stretched production systems.

The implication is clear: growing under glass reduces exposure to variability, but it does not eliminate climate risk when ambient conditions move beyond historical operating ranges. As climate variability increases, energy demand, input costs, and system stress rise in parallel.

Warming climates are turning pests into trade barriers

Rising temperatures are reshaping biological risk. The False Codling Moth, native to sub-Saharan Africa, has triggered heightened inspections and rejections at European borders. 

For exporters, this turns a biological shift into a commercial one, increasing compliance costs and shipment risk. For retailers and wholesalers, the impact shows up as tighter supply, higher prices, and reputational exposure linked to quality or availability during key seasonal windows.

The sustainability of roses is under pressure

Roses are among the most resource-intensive crops in global horticulture. Maintaining yield and shelf life requires significant water and nutrient inputs, a growing challenge in regions already facing soil degradation and water scarcity.

In parts of Kenya and Ethiopia, years of intensive production have contributed to soil degradation and increasing pressure on local water resources. Water constraints, rising input costs, and tighter regulation are converging to make business-as-usual increasingly fragile.

This is driving change. In Australia, retailers are leaning on native flowers because they require less water and fewer chemical inputs, while offering greater supply certainty.

Building resilience into floral supply chains

This Valentine’s Day highlights a simple reality: seasonal certainty is no longer guaranteed.

To protect margins and resilience, retailers and brands are beginning to adapt in three ways:

• Nature-based adaptation: Investing in water harvesting, micro-climate monitoring, and integrated pest management to stabilise yields and maintain market access.
  
• Regenerative soil health: Practices such as mulching and organic inputs improve soil structure and water retention, reducing irrigation needs and building resilience under hotter, drier conditions.
  
• Hybrid sourcing: Blending global imports with climate-resilient local or native varieties to spread risk and reduce dependence on single regions.

The winners will be those who treat nature risk as a strategic input, not an operational afterthought.

From flowers to cocoa to cotton, supply chains shaped by nature need better visibility. At Earth Blox, we provide spatial insight into water stress and ecosystem degradation so sourcing teams can stay ahead of seasonal shocks. Book a call to see how you can uncover nature risks and opportunities in your supply chain.

Because in today’s economy, love might be blind, but supply chains can’t afford to be.