The global landscape of carbon markets and emissions trading in 2026 is defined by extreme complexity, mirroring the high-level technical environment of the global financial markets. As observed during the IETA European Climate Summit (ECS) last week in Barcelona, the carbon market has moved beyond a collection of fragmented projects into a unifying ecosystem where regulatory necessity, digital verification, and cross-border agreements converge. The structure of the Nature-based Solutions (NbS) market is shifting, and barriers to scaling persist, making digital Measurement, Reporting and Verification (dMRV) essential for delivering the data needed to navigate the next era of NbS.

Bridging the valuation and communication gap to scale demand

Despite perceived geopolitical headwinds, the credit market remains stable. MSCI analysis found retirements through the first quarter of this year have held steady compared to the five-year average, plateauing at approximately 200 million units. NbS continue to represent 40-50% of retirements by value.

A fundamental barrier to scaling NbS investment is a structural mismatch between the broad societal value these projects provide and the narrow financial logic corporations use to capture that value. Most corporate players struggle to translate nature-based benefits into a compelling business case due to fragmented methodologies and a lack of standardised performance evidence. This information barrier prevents finance teams from seeing NbS as a strategic asset, leading many to retreat into greenhushing, ceasing to communicate climate actions entirely for fear that a greenwashing accusation might outweigh any potential reward.

To move forward, the market is shifting toward frameworks that treat NbS as strategic climate investments.

• Rulebook for claims: The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has introduced the Ongoing Emissions Responsibility (OER) framework, which acts as a psychological nudge by mandating companies to disclose whether they plan to take responsibility for emissions they cannot yet abate.
• Standardised branding: The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI) has established Carbon Integrity Claims (Silver, Gold, and Platinum), providing a clear set of rules for how companies can credibly communicate their contributions without fear of litigation.
• Quality premium: Demand for high-integrity assets is already visible in pricing. Projects with a rating of BBB+ or above command a significant premium, averaging $26.1 per credit compared to $14.5 for BB-rated equivalents.

By moving the dialogue away from vague offsetting and toward meaningful climate contributions, companies can finally align their communication strategies with their climate actions beyond the value chain.

Global compliance market growth drivers

Increasing demand is being driven by the operationalisation of global frameworks that provide the bridge between voluntary and compliance mechanisms.

• Sovereign compliance: As countries seek to fulfil their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement enables international cooperation via mitigation outcomes. The market is now utilising Article 6.2 for decentralised bilateral trades and Article 6.4, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), a centralised exchange with strict universal rules.
• Sector-wide mandatory offsetting: The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is entering Phase 1 (2024–2026) as the first global market-based scheme to apply to an entire sector. With 130 countries participating, up to 200 million credits are forecast to be required to meet sector obligations.
• Regulatory convergence: A continued convergence of the compliance and voluntary markets is being led by territories such as California, Colombia, and Australia, where high-quality voluntary credits are increasingly eligible for regulatory use.

Compliance markets as a catalyst for NbS

The expansion of national Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) is fundamentally altering the supply side, with 41 systems now in force globally. These newer systems are acting as catalysts for the generation of local NbS projects.

• Regional integrity mandates: California's program now includes a direct environmental benefits mandate, requiring 50% of offsets to originate from projects within the state. Similarly, the state of Querétaro in Mexico requires at least 25% of offsets to come from local NbS supply.
• Strong price floors: In Singapore, the government has set a rising carbon tax, which has already increased from S$5 in 2022 to S$45 in 2026. The government also contracted for nature-based credits and recently secured more than 2m tonnes of high-quality NbS credits to meet international framework requirements — at a price point which was significantly higher than historical voluntary averages, thereby incentivising more rigorous projects.
• Brazil’s forestry core: The recently established SBCE (Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System) is designed to rely on the forestry and land-use sectors as its primary sources of verified emission-removal certificates.

Earth Blox: Providing the foundation for project integrity

The transition of NbS into compliance-grade assets (especially under the rigorous requirements of Article 6 and CORSIA) requires a move away from reactive reporting based on infrequent site visits toward proactive oversight driven by digital MRV. Earth Blox provides the critical technological infrastructure to ensure a single source of truth across the entire carbon value chain.

Feasibility and due diligence

Before a project begins, Earth Blox enables developers and investors to establish a credible baseline. By utilising geospatial data which stretches back from 40 years to the present day, the platform allows for the independent verification of historical forest extent and additionality, ensuring the physical reality of the land matches financial projections. This provides the evidence-based intelligence needed for rigorous third-party due diligence and project acquisition.

Monitoring performance and proactive risk management

Once active, Earth Blox enables the automated calculation of metrics such as biomass accumulation and vegetation health across millions of hectares simultaneously. Ongoing monitoring is essential for NbS projects such as ARR (with Verra having approved the first of its VM0047 credits this week) as it closes the visibility gap that previously allowed underperformance or leakage to go unnoticed. Through the integration of authoritative datasets, Earth Blox can detect a range of disturbances, providing alerts that land in your inbox when thresholds are breached in near-real time, including:

• Fire monitoring: Earth Blox integrates the NASA FIRMS dataset, refreshing every three hours, to estimate the centre of fire events and calculate impact percentages.
• Deforestation tracking: By comparing satellite imagery with identified loss areas, Earth Blox detects human disturbances and forest loss in surrounding areas, ensuring project boundaries are respected.

Reporting and verification

This supports diverse portfolios, from ARR and REDD+ to blue carbon and biodiversity. By providing evidence-based intelligence, Earth Blox enables stakeholders to place certainty in their environmental products and secure the quality premium required for financial viability. It also enables third parties such as ratings agencies and Validation and Verification Bodies (VVBs) seeking to verify, audit and assess project veracity by providing them with their own source of truth. This ensures that they can place increased trust in their own assessments, avoiding over-reliance on project-provided audit evidence.

Conclusion

The complexity of the 2026 carbon market demands a shift from jargon-heavy voluntary claims to data-backed responsibility. As compliance markets incentivise local NbS generation and buyers pay for quality, the objective intelligence provided by Earth Blox becomes the foundation of market integrity. By leveraging scalable satellite monitoring to provide proactive oversight, Earth Blox ensures that nature-based projects deliver the genuine climate outcomes required for a high-integrity financial reality.

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Ben Matthews is Director of Nature and Climate at Earth Blox. As former lead of PwC UK’s Nature Analytics team, Ben brings extensive experience in nature and climate analytics, having led the largest corporate pilot for TNFD and contributed to Business for Nature’s Strategy Handbook.

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